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Chief Economist Scott Brown discusses the latest market data.

Despite omicron disruptions, nonfarm payrolls posted a 467,000 seasonally adjusted gain in January. Annual benchmark revisions shifted job growth around in 2021 and showed a much stronger near-term trend. Average hourly earnings rose 0.7% (+5.7% y/y). The unemployment rate edged up to 4.0% (from 3.9%), reflecting a pickup in labor force participation (concentrated among teenagers and those over 54, which seems like noise). Details of the household survey data showed that 2.3% of those with jobs could not work due to illness during the survey week – that’s huge. (It was 1.0% in the delta wave.)

Job openings rebounded to 10.9 million at the end of December, still elevated. The ISM Manufacturing Index edged down to 57.6 in January (from 58.8 in December), while the Services Index fell to 59.9 (vs. 62.3) – both reports were consistent with moderate growth but restrained by ongoing supply chain and COVID-19 issues. Unit motor vehicle sales rose to a 15.0 million seasonally adjusted annual rate in January (vs. 12.5 million in December), but the total was exaggerated by the seasonal adjustment. (Unadjusted sales were down 25% from a year ago, reflecting ongoing production constraints.) Jobless claims fell to 238,000 in the week ending January 29, following a COVID-19-related rise in the early weeks of the year.

Next week: One shouldn’t make too much of any particular data report, but the January job market data put a 50-basis-point hike on the table for the March 15 to 16 Federal Reserve policy meeting. This week’s inflation data will be important.

Indices

Consumer Money Rates

Currencies

Commodities

Bond Rates

Treasury Yield Curve – 2/4/2022

As of close of business 2/3/2022

S&P Sector Performance (YTD) – 2/4/2022

Economic Calendar

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