February 19, 2020
Chief Economist Scott Brown discusses the latest market data.
Retail sales jumped 5.3% in January (+7.4% y/y), up 5.9% ex-autos (+6.1% y/y). Some of January’s strength reflected a smaller decline in the unadjusted figures (-17.3%, vs. -18.5% in January 2020) following a weak holiday shopping season. However, unadjusted figures were still substantially higher than a year ago, suggesting that improvement was likely fueled by the resumption of extended unemployment benefits. Industrial production rose 0.9% in January (-1.8% y/y). Manufacturing output rose 1.0% (-1.2% y/y). Single-family building permits rose 3.8% in January (+29.9% y/y and up 55% from two years ago)
The Producer Price Index jumped 1.3% in January (1.7% y/y), reflecting supply chain constraints and a rebound in prices that were restrained due to the pandemic. Ex-food and energy, the index for unprocessed intermediate goods rose 8.9% (24.9% y/y). Import prices rose 1.4% in January (0.9% y/y), up 0.8% (2.6% y/y) ex-food and fuels. Ex-fuels, prices of imported raw materials rose 4.3% (13.3% y/y), while the index for consumer goods ex-autos edged down 0.1% (0.1% y/y).
Next week, Fed Chair Powell is expected to cover no new ground in his prepared monetary policy testimony to Congress on Tuesday and Wednesday, but investors will tune into the Q&A for any comments about asset valuations and inflation. The second estimate of 4Q20 GDP growth is expected to be close to the advance figure. January personal income and spending data will reflect the increase in pandemic assistance, while the core PCE Price Index should be mild.
|Last||Last Week||YTD return %|
Consumer Money Rates
|Last||1 year ago|
|Last||1 year ago|
|Dollars per British Pound||1.3975||1.292|
|Dollars per Euro||1.2092||1.081|
|Japanese Yen per Dollar||105.69||111.37|
|Canadian Dollars per Dollar||1.268||1.322|
|Mexican Peso per Dollar||20.309||18.563|
|Last||1 year ago|
|Last||1 month ago|
|10-year municipal (TEY)||1.25||1.17|
Treasury Yield Curve – 02/19/2021
As of close of business 02/18/2021
S&P Sector Performance (YTD) – 02/19/2021
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