April 1, 2021
Review the latest portfolio strategy commentary from Mike Gibbs, managing director of Equity Portfolio & Technical Strategy.
Q1 2021 is in the books with the S&P 500 up 5.8% to begin the year, making it the fourth consecutive quarter of positive returns. The underlying performance remains very broad with 91% of S&P 500 stocks above their 200 day moving average, and the average stock nearly doubling the headline index’s year-to-date return at 11%. This bodes well for intermediate term performance, and also highlights the market rotation that has dominated performance- with outsized gains coming from areas most levered to an economic reopening, while last year’s technology-oriented leaders largely have consolidated their prior strength (acting as a source of capital for the “reflation trade”). We remain broadly positive on equities, and continue to recommend a pro-cyclical approach to portfolio positioning. But we would also not be surprised for the historically strong gains experienced over the past twelve months to become more normal (with normal pullbacks) over the next 12 months. Continue to use weakness in favored sectors and stocks as buying opportunities.
While Q1 market momentum was supported by unprecedented amounts of fiscal stimulus (along with continued Fed support) and a ramped-up vaccine rollout, the path of infrastructure spending and higher taxes will become a larger piece of the narrative in Q2. President Biden released phase one of his infrastructure/tax plan yesterday, which reflected ~$2T in infrastructure spending paid for by ~$2T in new corporate taxes. The proposal would take the corporate tax rate to 28% from 21%, and incorporate a global minimum tax rate of 21%. Phase two is likely to be released on April 12th or 19th with more “social” spending paid for by personal taxes. These proposals are a starting point for Congressional discussions (i.e. may ultimately be “watered down”) and are likely to take months to iron out. Whether these two packages move forward individually or combined is also an open question, but something significant is likely to get done this year. For further details on the infrastructure bill, please see Raymond James DC Policy Analyst Ed Mills’ report HERE. Overall for equities, we do not believe the potential for higher taxes outweighs the massive stimulus supporting the economic reopening and recovery ahead.
Q1 earnings season will begin in two weeks, and growth numbers should start to become robust (from last year’s low base). S&P 500 earnings are expected to grow over 21% y/y this quarter- led by Consumer Discretionary (72% growth), Financials (71%), and Materials (48%). While deep cyclical areas have been the beneficiaries of sector rotation in recent months, Technology (last year’s “pandemic winner” and underperforming in the sector rotation) is also expecting strong 23%+ earnings growth. It will be interesting to hear from these companies, and assess the market reaction for clues on the next leg of sector performance.
IMPORTANT INVESTOR DISCLOSURES
This material is being provided for informational purposes only. Expressions of opinion are provided as of the date above and subject to change. Any information should not be deemed a recommendation to buy, hold or sell any security. Certain information has been obtained from third-party sources we consider reliable, but we do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete. This report is not a complete description of the securities, markets, or developments referred to in this material and does not include all available data necessary for making an investment decision. Prior to making an investment decision, please consult with your financial advisor about your individual situation. Investing involves risk and you may incur a profit or loss regardless of strategy selected. There is no guarantee that the statements, opinions or forecasts provided herein will prove to be correct.
Links to third-party websites are being provided for informational purposes only. Raymond James is not affiliated with and does not endorse, authorize, or sponsor any of the listed websites or their respective sponsors. Raymond James is not responsible for the content of any third-party website or the collection or use of information regarding any websites users and/or members.
This report is provided to clients of Raymond James only for your personal, noncommercial use. Except as expressly authorized by Raymond James, you may not copy, reproduce, transmit, sell, display, distribute, publish, broadcast, circulate, modify, disseminate, or commercially exploit the information contained in this report, in printed, electronic, or any other form, in any manner, without the prior express written consent of Raymond James. You also agree not to use the information provided in this report for any unlawful purpose. This report and its contents are the property of Raymond James and are protected by applicable copyright, trade secret, or other intellectual property laws (of the United States and other countries). United States law, 17 U.S.C. Sec. 501 et seq, provides for civil and criminal penalties for copyright infringement. No copyright claimed in incorporated U.S. government works.
The S&P 500 is an unmanaged index of 500 widely held stocks that is generally considered representative of the U.S. stock market.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) is a price-weighted average of 30 significant stocks traded on the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) and the NASDAQ.
The NASDAQ Composite is a stock market index of the common stocks and similar securities listed on the NASDAQ stock market.
The MSCI World All Cap Index captures large, mid, small and micro-cap representation across 23 Developed Markets (DM) countries. With 11,732 constituents, the index is comprehensive, covering approximately 99% of the free float-adjusted market capitalization in each country.
MSCI EAFE (Europe, Australasia, and Far East) is a free float-adjusted market capitalization index that is designed to measure developed market equity performance, excluding the United States & Canada. The EAFE consists of the country indices of 21 developed nations.
MSCI Emerging Markets Index is designed to measure equity market performance in 23 emerging market countries. The index’s three largest industries are materials, energy, and banks.
Keep in mind that individuals cannot invest directly in any index, and index performance does not include transaction costs or other fees, which will affect actual investment performance. Individual investor’s results will vary. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Future investment performance cannot be guaranteed, investment yields will fluctuate with market conditions.
For clients in the United Kingdom:
For clients of Raymond James Financial International Limited (RJFI): This document and any investment to which this document relates is intended for the sole use of the persons to whom it is addressed, being persons who are Eligible Counterparties or Professional Clients as described in the FCA rules or persons described in Articles 19(5) (Investment professionals) or 49(2) (high net worth companies, unincorporated associations, etc.) of the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 (Financial Promotion) Order 2005 (as amended)or any other person to whom this promotion may lawfully be directed. It is not intended to be distributed or passed on, directly or indirectly, to any other class of persons and may not be relied upon by such persons and is, therefore, not intended for private individuals or those who would be classified as Retail Clients.
For clients of Raymond James Investment Services, Ltd.: This document is for the use of professional investment advisers and managers and is not intended for use by clients.
For clients in France:
This document and any investment to which this document relates is intended for the sole use of the persons to whom it is addressed, being persons who are Eligible Counterparties or Professional Clients as described in “Code Monetaire et Financier” and Reglement General de l’Autorite des marches Financiers. It is not intended to be distributed or passed on, directly or indirectly, to any other class of persons and may not be relied upon by such persons and is, therefore, not intended for private individuals or those who would be classified as Retail Clients.
For clients of Raymond James Euro Equities: Raymond James Euro Equities is authorised and regulated by the Autorite de Controle Prudentiel et de Resolution and the Autorite des Marches Financiers.
For institutional clients in the European Economic rea (EE ) outside of the United Kingdom:
This document (and any attachments or exhibits hereto) is intended only for EEA institutional clients or others to whom it may lawfully be submitted.
For Canadian clients:
This document is not prepared subject to Canadian disclosure requirements, unless a Canadian has contributed to the content of the document. In the case where there is Canadian contribution, the document meets all applicable IIROC disclosure requirements.
Broker Dealer Disclosures
Securities are: NOT Deposits • NOT Insured by FDIC or any other government agency • NOT GUARANTEED by the bank • Subject to risk and may lose value
Raymond James & Associates, Inc., member New York Stock Exchange/SIPC. Raymond James Financial Services, Inc., member FINRA/SIPC. Raymond James® is a registered trademark of Raymond James Financial, Inc.
Markets & Investing December 09, 2022 Review the latest Weekly Headings by CIO Larry Adam. Key...