Review the latest portfolio strategy commentary from Mike Gibbs, managing director of Equity Portfolio & Technical Strategy.
Equity markets have pulled back 7.5% in recent weeks as the virus spread has intensified. New cases, hospitalizations, and 7-day average deaths are all trending higher, as is the positivity rate of new tests (7.4% currently). This is leading to concerns around the eventual reopening timeline, as well as enhanced mitigation measures. Moreover, the Congressional impasse on additional fiscal aid continues as both sides remain in gridlock until after the election- which also creates uncertainty regarding its outcome and implications.
Ultimately, we believe additional fiscal aid will come post-election, positive news flow on therapeutics and potential vaccines are likely to continue, and the Fed still remains on hand to support the economic recovery. Additionally, we continue to view the S&P 500 as in a good intermediate term uptrend and in the early stages of a bull market. Because of this, we believe the pullback should be used as a buying opportunity, while acknowledging the potential for continued volatile trading in the short term. The risk/reward to our base case 2021 S&P 500 target (3600) has also become more attractive at current prices, representing 10% potential upside (with an upward bias to that level).
Technically, we believe the highest odds are for support to be found near the 200 day moving average. We see the first level of good support at ~3200 (horizontal support that held in September pullback), followed by 3130 (200 DMA), and 3000 (horizontal support). This represents -2% to -9% additional downside from current levels with a bias to favor the smaller decline. Technical indicators are approaching levels enough oversold to have a bounce; but with the election next week, we expect stocks to stay on the defensive. The weakness does set the market up for a counter bounce after the election (in the absence of a contested outcome).
On the earnings front, Q3 results have so far come in well above expectations in aggregate, leading to a 7.2% increase in full quarter estimates. This is above the 5 year average revision, however earnings season is impressively only half way through. The results also highlight how bifurcated fundamentals are this year with about half of companies growing and the other half contracting y/y. The group growing is doing so at a healthy 22.2% median rate, while the group contracting is doing so at a depressed -19.1% median rate. Price reactions (to earnings announcements) have been muted (-0.8% median), as the strong overall reports have not been rewarded by investors. This suggests that much of the growth was baked into expectations, but also likely has more to do with results coming in the midst of a ramp up in virus spread concerns.
IMPORTANT INVESTOR DISCLOSURES
This material is being provided for informational purposes only. Expressions of opinion are provided as of the date above and subject to change. Any information should not be deemed a recommendation to buy, hold or sell any security. Certain information has been obtained from third-party sources we consider reliable, but we do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete. This report is not a complete description of the securities, markets, or developments referred to in this material and does not include all available data necessary for making an investment decision. Prior to making an investment decision, please consult with your financial advisor about your individual situation. Investing involves risk and you may incur a profit or loss regardless of strategy selected. There is no guarantee that the statements, opinions or forecasts provided herein will prove to be correct.
Links to third-party websites are being provided for informational purposes only. Raymond James is not affiliated with and does not endorse, authorize, or sponsor any of the listed websites or their respective sponsors. Raymond James is not responsible for the content of any third-party website or the collection or use of information regarding any websites users and/or members.
This report is provided to clients of Raymond James only for your personal, noncommercial use. Except as expressly authorized by Raymond James, you may not copy, reproduce, transmit, sell, display, distribute, publish, broadcast, circulate, modify, disseminate, or commercially exploit the information contained in this report, in printed, electronic, or any other form, in any manner, without the prior express written consent of Raymond James. You also agree not to use the information provided in this report for any unlawful purpose. This report and its contents are the property of Raymond James and are protected by applicable copyright, trade secret, or other intellectual property laws (of the United States and other countries). United States law, 17 U.S.C. Sec. 501 et seq, provides for civil and criminal penalties for copyright infringement. No copyright claimed in incorporated U.S. government works.
The S&P 500 is an unmanaged index of 500 widely held stocks that is generally considered representative of the U.S. stock market.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) is a price-weighted average of 30 significant stocks traded on the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) and the NASDAQ.
The NASDAQ Composite is a stock market index of the common stocks and similar securities listed on the NASDAQ stock market.
The MSCI World All Cap Index captures large, mid, small and micro-cap representation across 23 Developed Markets (DM) countries. With 11,732 constituents, the index is comprehensive, covering approximately 99% of the free float-adjusted market capitalization in each country.
MSCI EAFE (Europe, Australasia, and Far East) is a free float-adjusted market capitalization index that is designed to measure developed market equity performance, excluding the United States & Canada. The EAFE consists of the country indices of 21 developed nations.
MSCI Emerging Markets Index is designed to measure equity market performance in 23 emerging market countries. The index’s three largest industries are materials, energy, and banks.
Keep in mind that individuals cannot invest directly in any index, and index performance does not include transaction costs or other fees, which will affect actual investment performance. Individual investor’s results will vary. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Future investment performance cannot be guaranteed, investment yields will fluctuate with market conditions.
For clients in the United Kingdom:
For clients of Raymond James Financial International Limited (RJFI): This document and any investment to which this document relates is intended for the sole use of the persons to whom it is addressed, being persons who are Eligible Counterparties or Professional Clients as described in the FCA rules or persons described in Articles 19(5) (Investment professionals) or 49(2) (high net worth companies, unincorporated associations, etc.) of the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 (Financial Promotion) Order 2005 (as amended)or any other person to whom this promotion may lawfully be directed. It is not intended to be distributed or passed on, directly or indirectly, to any other class of persons and may not be relied upon by such persons and is, therefore, not intended for private individuals or those who would be classified as Retail Clients.
For clients of Raymond James Investment Services, Ltd.: This document is for the use of professional investment advisers and managers and is not intended for use by clients.
For clients in France:
This document and any investment to which this document relates is intended for the sole use of the persons to whom it is addressed, being persons who are Eligible Counterparties or Professional Clients as described in “Code Monetaire et Financier” and Reglement General de l’Autorite des marches Financiers. It is not intended to be distributed or passed on, directly or indirectly, to any other class of persons and may not be relied upon by such persons and is, therefore, not intended for private individuals or those who would be classified as Retail Clients.
For clients of Raymond James Euro Equities: Raymond James Euro Equities is authorised and regulated by the Autorite de Controle Prudentiel et de Resolution and the Autorite des Marches Financiers.
For institutional clients in the European Economic rea (EE ) outside of the United Kingdom:
This document (and any attachments or exhibits hereto) is intended only for EEA institutional clients or others to whom it may lawfully be submitted.
For Canadian clients:
This document is not prepared subject to Canadian disclosure requirements, unless a Canadian has contributed to the content of the document. In the case where there is Canadian contribution, the document meets all applicable IIROC disclosure requirements.
Broker Dealer Disclosures
Securities are: NOT Deposits • NOT Insured by FDIC or any other government agency • NOT GUARANTEED by the bank • Subject to risk and may lose value
Raymond James & Associates, Inc., member New York Stock Exchange/SIPC. Raymond James Financial Services, Inc., member FINRA/SIPC. Raymond James® is a registered trademark of Raymond James Financial, Inc.
Markets & Investing September 22, 2023 Review the latest Weekly Headings by CIO Larry Adam. Key...