Weekly Market Guide - Butler Financial, LTD
Ascending Into Summer - June 6, 2022

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Weekly Market Guide

Review the latest portfolio strategy commentary from Mike Gibbs, managing director of Equity Portfolio & Technical Strategy.

Short-Term Summary

The S&P 500 trades at the high end of the range in place since June 8th. But although the index has generally moved sideways in recent weeks, there has been plenty of shuffling beneath the surface. After reaching extended levels in the short term, many of the large tech-oriented companies have consolidated in recent days. On the flip side, many of the more economically-sensitive cyclical areas have gained strength this week on optimism over a COVID-19 vaccine. We view this cyclical rotation as healthy for the market. Technology stocks have generally carried the market thus far, so these other areas will need to improve in order to push the S&P 500 materially higher.

Technically, S&P 500 resistance at the June 8th peak of 3233 remains in place. We would not be surprised for choppiness to continue in the short term, as numerous high-frequency economic indicators have stalled over the past several weeks. This comes in conjunction with a rise in the virus spread, accompanied by many communities pausing or even back-tracking on their economic reopening processes. Q2 earnings season is also underway, which is expected to mark the fundamental trough of the virus impact (S&P 500 earnings expected to contract -44%). Due to a lack of guidance in Q1 and vast uncertainty in the current environment, analyst estimates are historically wide. This can lead to large surprises and also large swings on results. For example, 11 financials stocks have reported thus far with 7 trading up by an average of 2.1% while 4 traded lower by an average of -4.1% on their announcements. On the whole, 21 S&P 500 stocks have reported and experienced an average price reaction of 0.15%. Q2 earnings season ramps up next week with 79 S&P 500 companies reporting. The most stable earnings are expected from the Utilities, Technology, and Health Care sectors. Since the end of Q1 earnings season, the best estimate revisions have also come from these three sectors with particular strength from Health Care.

Despite our belief that the market could experience more sideways grind as it continues its range-bound trading in the short term, we continue to believe that weakness should be used to opportunistically accumulate favored stocks for the longer term. We acknowledge the potential for volatility to occur (virus spread, election, China tensions), but believe the enormous global stimulus outweighs these potential concerns. Technically, the S&P 500 experienced a golden cross over the past week (50 day moving average crosses back above the 200 DMA). Historically, when this has occurred out of bear markets, the returns are very bullish. In the prior 9 times since 1930, every period saw the S&P 500 move higher over the next 12 months by an average of 23.8%.

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IMPORTANT INVESTOR DISCLOSURES

This material is being provided for informational purposes only. Expressions of opinion are provided as of the date above and subject to change. Any information should not be deemed a recommendation to buy, hold or sell any security. Certain information has been obtained from third-party sources we consider reliable, but we do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete. This report is not a complete description of the securities, markets, or developments referred to in this material and does not include all available data necessary for making an investment decision. Prior to making an investment decision, please consult with your financial advisor about your individual situation. Investing involves risk and you may incur a profit or loss regardless of strategy selected. There is no guarantee that the statements, opinions or forecasts provided herein will prove to be correct.

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Index Definitions

The S&P 500 is an unmanaged index of 500 widely held stocks that is generally considered representative of the U.S. stock market.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) is a price-weighted average of 30 significant stocks traded on the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) and the NASDAQ.

The NASDAQ Composite is a stock market index of the common stocks and similar securities listed on the NASDAQ stock market.

The MSCI World All Cap Index captures large, mid, small and micro-cap representation across 23 Developed Markets (DM) countries. With 11,732 constituents, the index is comprehensive, covering approximately 99% of the free float-adjusted market capitalization in each country.

MSCI EAFE (Europe, Australasia, and Far East) is a free float-adjusted market capitalization index that is designed to measure developed market equity performance, excluding the United States & Canada. The EAFE consists of the country indices of 21 developed nations.

MSCI Emerging Markets Index is designed to measure equity market performance in 23 emerging market countries. The index’s three largest industries are materials, energy, and banks.

Keep in mind that individuals cannot invest directly in any index, and index performance does not include transaction costs or other fees, which will affect actual investment performance. Individual investor’s results will vary. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Future investment performance cannot be guaranteed, investment yields will fluctuate with market conditions.

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